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Election results may spell trouble for Obama, Dems

American politics just got a lot more interesting.

The results of Republican wins in gubernatorial contests in Virginia and New Jersey this week demonstrate President Obama’s victory a year ago doesn’t necessarily translate into a sustainable electoral advantage for Democrats in the political contests to come.

Certainly, the national media notion that Obama’s election signaled the country’s fundamental shift from center-right to center-left has been shattered.

Exit polling in Virginia and New Jersey shows that despite widely reported macro-measures of a national recovery, most voters continue to be troubled about their own economic well-being. If that anxious, even dour, mood doesn’t moderate significantly, that obviously spells trouble for the party in power in 2010.

A peek below the surface of Tuesday’s results reveals that self-identified independents — the same group that arguably was responsible for Obama’s win last year — didn’t heed the president’s call to transfer that allegiance to fellow Democrats.

In Virginia, independents favored Republican Bob McDonnell 66-33 over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Similarly, in New Jersey, independent voters flocked to Republican challenger Chris Christie 60-30 over Democratic incumbent Gov. John Corzine.

While it would be a mistake to see Republican gubernatorial wins in Virginia and New Jersey as a referendum on Obama personally, the results of both races strongly suggest that there are severe limits to the political efficacy of the president’s popularity. And at the least, it may be more difficult for this administration to gain the support of legislators who now have cause for concern about the mood of the electorate.

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