Virginia redistricting fight continues against national backdrop

WISE – Virginia Democrats' efforts to pass a state constitutional amendment referendum on off-year Congressional redistricting are entangled in a court battle as other states are looking at how to handle the 2026 midterm elections.Three Virginia legislators – including House of Delegates Minority Leader De. Terry Kilgore, went 307 miles outside the State Capitol to file suit against the measure and won an injunction Jan. 27 against the referendum bill.The suit – by Kilgore, state Del. Ryan McDougle, R-4th, and Sen. William Stanley Jr., R-7th - claimed that the General Assembly approved the constitutional amendment for public vote during the October 2025 special session but not before the next subsequent November election.McDougle is the legislative commissioner for the state's Redistricting Commission.Tazewell County Circuit Judge Jack Hurley, Jr. agreed with the legislators' view that, while the November 2025 Election Day had not then occurred, early voting had started in September. That, Hurley ruled, meant the November election had actually started before approval of the amendment for public vote.The amendment and an April 21 special referendum election was included in two appropriations bills approved by majority Democratic House and Senate votes Tuesday.Gov. Abigail Spanberger has signed the final version from House and Senate versions, leaving it to the Virginia Supreme Court to decide whether voters get to decide whether new congressional districts are going to happen in November.The move by Virginia Democratic legislators follows a series of states' redistricting measures encouraged by the Trump administration to improve chances of a Republican congressional majority after the 2026 midterm elections.The injunction has been sent to the Virginia Supreme Court for appeal. While a ruling is pending, California fought off Republican opposition to its own redistricting measure. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected the argument that the measure was racial gerrymandering because that state's voters approved the referendum authorizing the change in district maps.The state redistricting saga began last year, when Donald Trump asked states to redistrict to prevent a Democratic congressional majority in the 2026 midterm elections. Trump has been quoted in several national media outlets as saying that a Democratic midterm win would result in his impeachment.Texas became the first state to react to Trump's call with a pro-Republican redistricting map. UVA Wise political science professor Heather Evans said it was ironic that Texas' redistricting effort comes 190 years after two Virginians – Stephen Austin and Sam Houston – helped found the Republic of Texas.Maryland legislators are at a standstill with their own Democratic-leaning redistricting plan, with Democrat majority senate leader Bill Ferguson saying the plan will not come up for vote in that house.If the Virginia measure passes court scrutiny, in time to allow an April 24 special referendum, voters' reaction could be another matter, said Evans.Kilgore and state Republicans have attacked the Democrats' redistricting plan as ignoring affordability and economic issues affecting voters, Evans said."It's an issue of marketing, and the Republicans have done a decent job of framing it," Evans said of the referendum opposition. "I don't know how voters, especially independents, are going to react if they do get to vote on it."Affordability under the Trump administration goes to the core of the Democratic redistricting, Evans said, but current polling suggests that Republicans could lose two congressional seats in November. With a six-five split already favoring Democrats among the house congressional delegation, she said the proposed 10-1 Democrat redistricting map brings its own issues."Beth Macy is a strong Democratic candidate for the Sixth Congressional District including Roanoke, but would redistricting put her in the same district with other candidates who are strong fundraisers?" Evans asked. "That could be the same in other districts and it could come back to haunt the Democrats."Virginia Democrats have a history of supporting independent redistricting, Evans said, leading to the 2020 formation of the bipartisan state Redistricting Commission. The proposed referendum, if successful, would apply to districts for the 2026 and 2028 election cycles, with the commission resuming the normal 10-year redistricting cycle based on the updated U.S. Census figures.While the U.S. Senate has 33 seats open in the 2026 midterms, Evans said the redistricting itself would not have the same kind of impact on Virginia Sen. Mark Warner's re-election bid that it could have on congressional candidates.Nationally, however, some state's U.S. senators are looking at gubernatorial runs in their home states."Traditionally, you seen governors running for the Senate and not the other way around," said Evans. "Now we're looking at five senators and former senators looking at runs for governor: Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, Michael Bennett in Colorado, Tommy Tuberville and Doug Jones in Alabama and Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee."Bennett, a Democrat who would leave in the middle of his current Senate term, could appoint his successor if he wins election. Klobuchar is a Democrat. and Blackburn a Republican. An Alabama senate contest could pit Republican Tuberville against Democrat Jones."What does that say about national politics?" Evans added.