Polls show Rose gaining on Blackburn, Fritts close behind

NASHVILLE — Recent polls show U.S. Rep. John Rose, R-Tenn., gaining ground on U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., in the race for the Republican nomination for Tennessee governor. How much Rose has caught up depends on who you ask. The latest poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — a national firm that was chief pollster for two of Donald Trump's presidential campaigns — shows Blackburn with a 17-point lead over Rose. It's a sizable cushion, but a far cry from the 53-point lead Blackburn had in April. That poll also shows a third option for the Republican nominee — state Rep. Monty Fritts, R-Kingston — trailing Rose by only three percentage points. Eleven percent of survey respondents were "undecided." But days earlier, the Rose camp lauded a poll painting a different picture, one that shows Rose within four percentage-points of Blackburn. In that poll, Fritts was five percentage points behind Rose, and the undecided vote was at 9%. Polls have shown Fritts' increasing in popularity since he announced his candidacy last year. East Tennessee State University professor Daryl Anthony Carter, whose expertise is in 20th and 21st century American political history, says Fritts could end up drawing votes from Rose's base. "When you have three candidates, things can get a bit wonky," Carter said. "But my basic analysis would be that it would take votes away from Rose, and would potentially help Blackburn get over the hump, assuming that it's a close race." Carter said Blackburn's name recognition lent itself to an early lead in the polls. But he said some of her "campaign vulnerabilities" have come to light in recent months, such as her refusal to answer a Nashville reporter's questions following an event. "It came across as political malpractice, like she had something to hide," Carter said. "And the fact is, I don't think she had something to hide." Carter cautioned against trusting any single poll to tell the entire story ahead of the Aug. 6 primary. He pointed to the polling conducted in the 2016 Presidential Elections, which widely overestimated Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote over Donald Trump. "Polling is a very difficult thing," Carter said. "As good as the pollsters may be, you're still relying on human beings to give you honest answers about the candidates they plan to support. And it's not uncommon... where people interviewed by pollsters either obfuscated the truth a little bit, or they flat out lied and told the pollster something different, and then went into the the voting booth and voted a different way."