While America fights over oil, the world moves on to EVs

Once again, the United States finds itself entangled in a protracted Middle East conflict whose roots trace back to oil. While American-escorted convoys are now keeping crude moving out of the Persian Gulf, much of the region's refining capacity sits offline. U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliatory attacks have disrupted operations across Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Iraq. Reports indicate roughly 70% of Iran's refining capacity is sidelined, with significant damage or force majeure declarations affecting major facilities in neighboring states. At the same time, Ukraine's campaign against Russian refining has forced Moscow to halt diesel exports, and for the first time, import fuel from India. The result is a global bottleneck in the ability to turn oil into usable fuel. Contrary to claims circulating on social media, the United States has not shuttered significant refining capacity. Operable U.S. refining capacity remains near 19 million barrels per day — nearly the same as the pre-pandemic peak of 19.1 in 2019. Throughput remains robust thanks to high utilization rates and earlier de-bottlenecking that has offset modest closures. The U.S. has been a net exporter of refined products since 2022, as our usage is below what we refine. So, the real pressure on prices comes from elsewhere, the global market where U.S. refiners can get higher prices and supply is very constrained due to the war. Where this war differs from earlier conflicts is in the direct assault on shipping. Tankers face attacks, delays, longer routes and skyrocketing insurance premiums. Daily rates for large crude carriers on key Persian Gulf-to-Asia routes have surged from roughly $60,000 per day to more than $1.4 million — an increase of more than 2,000% — adding about $30 per barrel to delivered oil costs. That freight premium helps explain why pump prices have risen faster than the underlying crude pricing. Additionally, the human and financial toll is steep. More than 20 American lives have been lost and over 900 service members injured. Direct military costs have climbed past $40 billion and continue to grow. Roughly 15 U.S. bases in the region have been effectively shuttered by drone and missile attacks. The Center for American Progress, drawing on analyses that include elevated energy prices and related economic impacts, estimates the cumulative burden at about $1,200 per American household as of early autumn — with the war nowhere near resolution. While the United States remains locked in this costly cycle, the rest of the world is shifting away from oil dependence. China now sells more electric vehicles domestically, than the entire U.S. vehicle market. Globally, pure gasoline-powered cars have fallen below 50% of new car sales, as battery-electric vehicles and hybrids claim the majority share. Vietnam's EV share of new car sales has soared from 5% in 2023 to more than 50% in recent quarters. India, Australia, Japan and South Korea have seen roughly doubled EV sales this year from their previous records last year. Europe continues strong sales growth of 45% this year. Ironically, the policy environment of the current administration appears to have indirectly spurred solar and EV adoption abroad, while domestic momentum stalled. The United States stands as the global outlier. EV sales here declined roughly 30% in 2026 after a 2025 rush to claim expiring tax credits. Sales have since stabilized near 2024 levels — above 6% of the market. Tesla still leads with about 60% of U.S. EV volume, while Rivian, another U.S. EV-only company, is posting strong growth exceeding 75% as it ramps production of its more affordable R2 models. Even so, American adoption trails the rest of the developed and emerging world. History suggests that prolonged Middle East interventions rarely deliver lasting security or energy independence at acceptable cost. Policymakers should confront the full ledger: lives lost, bases compromised, record tanker shipping rates, household costs up by more than a thousand dollars, and a refining bottleneck, that American capacity alone cannot offset. Staying the course risks another expensive, open-ended commitment while the world moves toward cleaner, more secure and cheaper energy. A clearer-eyed strategy would end the cycle of intervention, protect shipping lanes through diplomacy and deterrence rather than escalation, and invest at home in efficiency, refining flexibility and EVs, so the next oil shock lands with far less force. The U.S. is now bending to the oligarchs, as we attempt to go back in time, rather than lead the world. Dave Hrivnak is a retired engineer and the author of "Driving to Net 0 — Stories of Hope for a Carbon-Free Future."